A simple advertising forecast starts with two inputs: eligible ad impressions and average eCPM. The arithmetic is easy; the difficult part is using realistic impression volume without designing the game around accidental or excessive ad exposure.
By Dorn Bros Entertainment · How we prepare our guides
The basic ad revenue formula
Estimated revenue equals impressions divided by 1,000, multiplied by eCPM. If a game serves 100,000 eligible impressions at a $4 eCPM, the estimate is $400 before adjustments in reporting, fill, traffic quality, or regional mix.
- Forecast by country or region when possible.
- Separate rewarded, interstitial, banner, and app-open formats.
- Use observed eCPM instead of a copied industry average.
Why impression estimates change
Daily active users, sessions per player, eligible opportunities, consent, fill rate, frequency limits, and ad availability all affect delivered impressions. A forecast should show a conservative, expected, and strong scenario rather than one precise promise.
Worked three-format forecast
Imagine a month with 60,000 rewarded impressions at a $7 eCPM, 90,000 interstitial impressions at a $3.50 eCPM, and 250,000 banner impressions at a $0.35 eCPM. The separate estimates are $420, $315, and $87.50, for $822.50 total before reporting adjustments.
Keeping formats separate makes the model easier to audit. If banner volume doubles, the estimate should not accidentally apply the rewarded-video eCPM to those extra impressions. Replace every example value with observed reporting from the same date range before using the forecast for a business decision.
- Rewarded: 60,000 ÷ 1,000 × $7 = $420.
- Interstitial: 90,000 ÷ 1,000 × $3.50 = $315.
- Banner: 250,000 ÷ 1,000 × $0.35 = $87.50.
Balance revenue with retention
More ad opportunities do not automatically create more lifetime revenue. Ads that interrupt controls, appear too early, or feel misleading can reduce sessions and retention. Rewarded ads work best when the value exchange is clear and optional.
- Keep gameplay controls and download buttons visually separate from ads.
- Measure retention and session length after placement changes.
- Do not reward website ad clicks or encourage accidental interaction.
Build a useful forecast
Start with real active-user and session data. Estimate impressions by format, apply realistic fill and eCPM assumptions, then compare the result with player-experience metrics. Update the forecast as actual reports accumulate.
Use the Ad Revenue Calculator
Run your own numbers with a free browser-based tool, then explore a Dorn Bros release.
Frequently asked questions
What does eCPM mean?
eCPM is estimated revenue per one thousand impressions for a defined set of traffic and ad inventory.
Should every session show an ad?
No universal frequency is appropriate. Placement should respect the game flow, player expectations, platform rules, and measured retention.
Can an estimate guarantee earnings?
No. Demand, geography, format, consent, fill, seasonality, and traffic quality can change actual results.